Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted a multi-sectoral impact on omic
activities around the globe and is considered as the worst economic fallout since the
Great Depression. Demand and supply disruptions have acutely affected trade and
commerce. A downfall of global trade has been pointed out by WTO. Indirect taxes
constitute an important source of development funds for developing economies. The
implementation of GST has brought landmark gains in consolidating indirect taxes and
thereby reducing the cascading effect of taxes. GST revenues have fluctuated during
the pandemic period. Considering the significance of the revenue to the economy, an
attempt has been made to predict GST revenue using ARIMA analysis. The prediction
results indicate an optimistic growth in GST revenues which along with the efforts of
the Government towards liberalization of GST norms and revision of tax slabs is
expected to provide the economy with the essential boost to revive and revitalize the
Indian economy.
Keywords: ARIMA, GST, Indirect tax, Prediction, Pandemic.
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