Trends of Mortalities and Morbidities due to COVID-19, from Explosiveness to Aggressiveness, Gaps in System Response, and Transmission Chain
Hamid Yahya Hussain1, Nezar Ahmed Salim2, *, Bushra Baderkhan3, Mohamed Hamid3, Abdulla Hamid3, Fouad Hussein Chehab2, Khaled H. A. Al Qawasmeh4, Mohammed Tuffaha5
1 Department Studies and Data Analysis, Dubai Health Authority, Research, Dubai Health Authority, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
2 Dubai Hospital, Dubai Health Authority, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
3 Faculty of Medicine, University of Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq
4 Tawam Hospital, SEHA, Al-Ain, United Arab Emirates
5 Amana Health Care Medical and Rehabilitation Hospital, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Due to the high prevalence and wide distribution of coronaviruses, their large genetic diversity, frequent recombination of their genomes, and increasing human-animal interface activities, novel coronaviruses are likely to emerge periodically in humans owing to frequent cross-species infections and occasional spillover event.
The aim of this research is to study the short-term morbidities, mortalities and trends of international spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. In addition, to study the explosiveness and aggressiveness of the outbreak and the gaps in response.
Outbreak events were observed and followed up over two months. This study used daily statistical reports issued by the World Health Organization, as well as data from different national authorities, regarding mortalities and morbidities from all over the world, with a specific focus on Chinese statistics as the main source of the outbreak.
The current study showed that the number of confirmed COVID-19 infected cases started with 41 cases in early January 2020. The number of cases with COVID-19 kept rising to reach 128000 on March 12, 2020. Moreover, the current study has revealed that the number of deaths was only (1) case in early January 2020 and increased to 25 deaths on January 23, and end up with 170 deaths by the end of January. Deaths have dramatically increased to reach 2462 on Feb 23 and 4717 on March 12. In regards to the geographical spread of the COVID-19 infection outbreak, the number of affected countries increased to 100 by mid- March 2020. The number of fatality cases was 0.0368, compared to 0.533 in recovered cases within two months.
The natural history and course of the current outbreak revealed a highly explosive nature linked to considerable aggressiveness in terms of complications and mortalities, within only two months, and spread to 100 countries worldwide with 80000 cases within only two months. The study forecasted that the peak of the outbreak is not yet attained, and events that are more dramatic may occur worldwide.
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* Address correspondence to this author at the Dubai Hospital, Dubai Health Authority, Dubai, United Arab Emirates; Tel: 00971524818304; E-mail: Nezar_dubai30@yahoo.com
Abdullah Shehab Emirates Cardiac Society Emirates Medical Association Dubai (UAE) Biography
Biography of Abdullah Shehab
Dr. Abdullah Shehab has 22 years of experience in Internal medicine, cardiology and interventional cardiology and medical education. Currently, he serves as the General Secretary of Emirates Cardiac Society and Vice President of Gulf Intervention Society. He is a Fellow of royal college of physicians UK, American college of physician, European society of cardiology, of American college of cardiology, American society of cardiac intervention and fellow of American heart association. Professor Shehab is the Chief editor of Emirates Medical Journal and also serves as editor in many other regional and international journals. Dr. Shehab has published 149 paper in Medline. His research interest includes: Heart failure, Coronary artery disease, Dyslipidaemia, Hypertension, Arrhythmias, Cardiac intervention, Cardiac imaging, Screening for cardiac disease in sport players, Cardiovascular disease in pregnancy.